For years, discussions about Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and its risks have been largely theoretical—fodder for research papers and lively debates over drinks. But recently, experts increasingly claim we’re on the cusp of AGI.

Last week, New York Times tech columnist Ezra Klein interviewed Ben Buchanan, former Special Advisor on AI to the Biden administration, on the topic of AGI (article, video). The conversation has fueled even more debate on a defining question of our era: Have we developed AGI, and if so, what happens next?

It’s fair to say that both Ben and Ezra believe AGI is near—and increasingly, so do others. Sam Altman, OpenAI’s CEO, certainly does. Ethan Mollick, a popular Wharton professor, agrees it’s time to take AGI seriously. And there are many others in the AI community who believe the same.

I agree as well.

So that’s the focus of today’s newsletter. Let’s dive in, explore AGI, and, more importantly, discuss what actions you should take in your business!

What Is AGI?

Traditionally, AGI is defined as AI that surpasses human intelligence. The potential consequences range from AI replacing most human jobs to outwitting us and taking over the world à la Skynet from Terminator.

My own definition? AGI emerges when AI meets three criteria:

• It is smarter than humans across a broad spectrum of tasks.

• It has autonomy to determine its own goals.

• It can self-improve.

In the industry, this is often referred to as "recursive self-improvement," allowing AI to autonomously update its code and accelerate innovation.

This is not a far-off idea—it’s happening today in parts. AI agents can logically create a plan to accomplish any goal, conduct research, build applications in moments, and even debug their own errors. They continuously evaluate and refine their approaches.

With AI now outperforming average humans on most benchmarks—and our smartest humans on many others—the only missing components for AGI are allowing it the autonomy to create its own goals and operate outside controlled environments. But that’s already happening too: companies are developing AI agents with real-world data access, integrating AI into robotics, and even allowing AI to control systems—from humanoid robots to weapon systems.

Whether or not you agree that AGI has arrived, I believe that all its components are in place. The only remaining questions are who will combine them and who will set the goals.

And if that’s correct, then I think it’s important for you to prepare for its arrival.

If AGI Is Coming, What Should You Do About It?

Simply: start aggressively pursuing AI. It’s both an offensive and defensive play, whether you are an individual or business leader.

On the positive side, it is likely to bring immense opportunities. In every past technological disruption, new companies were formed, groundbreaking inventions emerged, and entire industries were created.

I expect the same to happen with AI. Those who act now will have the best opportunity not only to protect their businesses but also to capitalize on AI-driven innovation.

Unfortunately, your company is likely already behind.

When AGI arrives, companies that have embraced AI will be best positioned to benefit. As someone who advises businesses on AI adoption, I interact with 5-10 new companies every week. Based on my experience:

• 90% of companies lack a deliberate AI strategy.

• Most haven’t considered AI’s impact on their industry, cost structures, or workforce.

• The 10% strategically approaching AI are usually industry giants or tech firms with deep pockets and expertise.

As an example, I recently gave a keynote talk to a group of banking executives. According to Accenture, banking is the #1 industry most likely to be disrupted by AI, with 66% of banking tasks likely to be automated. JPMorgan is taking this seriously, with:

• 3,600 employees working on AI (as of 2023)

• $15 billion invested annually in AI

• 60,000 employees using AI products

• 400+ AI use cases already deployed

If you are a local or regional bank, this is a huge warning sign: while the biggest banks are investing significantly in AI, your company may lack leaders experienced in technology innovation, have internal AI expertise, and sufficient budgets. That’s going to make it increasingly difficult to compete with JPMorgan and other strategic adopters of AI.

This same situation applies to your industry—your largest competitor is already investing aggressively in AI. You likely have new, AI-native competitors you don’t know about yet, aiming to disrupt your business without the existing overhead you have today.

This is the story of all technology disruption, but this time: it’s happening at an unprecedented rate. At minimum, you must prepare for it. At best, you should explore the new, disruptive opportunities AI creates for your business.

New AI Adoption Research

When I start new engagements, I often begin with a survey of employee attitudes and use of AI, to prepare for the adoption and identify future opportunities. I recently did this for two regional clients, one in manufacturing and one in construction. Here are the results:

• ~7% of employee respondents are using generative AI tools daily, saving 7+ hours per week.

• ~34% use AI weekly, saving 4+ hours.

That means 41% of employees are already using AI at least weekly, saving at least 4 hours of time. And that is before we have even started an intentional adoption program!

When asked what would help them use AI more effectively, employees said they need:

• Formal training programs

• Clear AI usage guidelines

• Access to approved AI tools

I could share a lot more data points, but the key things to learn from this are:

• Traditional, non-technology industries are actively adopting AI.

• Even without a formal AI strategy or training program, 41% of employees already see at least a 10% productivity boost from GenAI tools.

• Employees want AI training and tools—but most businesses aren’t providing them.

So what’s in the way? Leadership.

Most leaders are treating AI like any other technology investment, placing it on a long priority list next to ERP upgrades or cybersecurity improvements. They may have set a goal to “evaluate it” this year, or something similar.

This is a strategic mistake.

For leaders, the biggest risk isn’t AI taking jobs—it’s competitors using AI taking your business.

As in the banking example above, you have competitors already using AI. The only question is whether they are doing so intentionally or whether their employees are figuring it out on their own. Either way, they’re getting smarter, more productive, and gaining an edge.

It’s Time to Take AI Seriously

It’s super clear: the businesses that act now will gain the most long-term advantages. AI adoption has an unmatched ROI—it can deliver productivity gains of 20% or more for as little as $30–$40 per employee per month. We’re proving it over and over.

And that’s just the start. AI can automate processes, enhance customer experiences, and create entirely new products and services.

AI is the way business will be done in the future.

All of this is why I created the AI SPRINT framework to help businesses adopt AI effectively. It’s an easy path to success:

• Align leadership and create a plan.

• Establish a formal AI training and adoption program. 

• Foster a culture of AI adoption. 

• Automate processes with AI.

I share the AI SPRINT framework in this newsletter and at events nationwide because I believe local businesses need structured AI adoption strategies, and I’ve yet to see a better approach.

It might not be perfect, and I continue to improve it, but I hope it can serve as a guidepost on your AI adoption journey.

The Best Time to Start AI Was Yesterday. The Next Best Is Today

AI is here, and AGI is approaching faster than many anticipated. With AI agents already capable of reasoning, self-improving, and autonomously executing complex tasks, the remaining barriers are quickly eroding. The largest companies are leading and will get the advantage of it first. For your success, you need to consider this a strategic risk and opportunity.

Every industry leader today was once an innovator who recognized and seized an opportunity before it became mainstream. AI represents that kind of opportunity now. Whether it’s improving efficiency, creating new business models, or developing transformative products, those who act now will have a first-mover advantage.

The sooner you move, the more prepared you’ll be—and the better positioned you’ll be to protect your career, company, and community.

I’d be glad to help—but more than anything, just start!

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